Forecasting Markets in October: Not Waving but Drowning.

'I was much further out than you thought And not waving but drowning.' 1957 Stevie Smith*

Cycles provide a guide and a roadmap. At the start of October it is worth revisiting these signposts to try and determine the future direction of the markets.

Cycles as Signposts

A caveat to start. Cycle analysis in financial markets or other complex systems is challenging due to the inherent variability and the presence of multiple cycles with varying degrees of dominance. Variability arises from the dynamic, non-linear nature of data, influenced by economic, social, or environmental factors, making it difficult to predict cycle lengths or amplitudes accurately. The term “dominancy” (often referred to as “cycle dominance”) describes the relative strength or influence of a particular cycle compared to others within a given timeframe.

Cycles are typically classified into short-term (weeks to months), medium-term (months to a few years), and long-term (several years to often many many decades) based on their duration. Short-term cycles then capture rapid fluctuations, often driven by market sentiment or news events. Medium-term cycles rather reflect broader trends, such as business cycles, while long-term cycles, like Kondratieff waves, are tied to structural economic shifts.

The interplay of these cycles, combined with their variable amplitudes and frequencies, complicates accurate identification and forecasting, requiring sophisticated tools like spectral analysis or wavelet transforms, WFA, and other methods and techniques to discern dominant cycles and their classifications.

It is useful then to view cycles as a guide or signpost, our roadmap if you like, and not, as the great Larry Williams has said, expect too much of them. And yet we can expect more than many depending of the type of cycles used.

Longer and Intermediate Cycles

It is my preference to use cycles that are natural, planetary or mathematical as they are, certainly in the first two, more predictable. I have mentioned various models and cycles previously. Here I simply refer to some historical cycles and patterns I find useful as applied to the markets today and into 2026 the reasons which should become obvious below if you read carefully.

Martin Armstrong ECM Model

The first is Armstrong and the ECM Model which predicts a Commodity Boom and a Global Shift by 2032. This mathematical model using Pi as a basis and neatly connecting with Venus Cycles is a Model I like to watch carefully as no input is required and it moves out fractally in waves.

Benner Cycle

This is a famous model and easily researched. You may notice the cycle lengths and research the connection with natural cycles. For now just note 2026 to 2032 below.

Jupiter-Saturn 20-year Cycle

Historically, there is a strong correlation between Jupiter-Saturn alignments and significant economic events. I focus on conjunction, opposition and squares in particular. The conjunction in 2000 occurred prior to the dot com bubble. The last Great Conjunction occurred in 2020.

Professor L.H. Weston in his 1921 treatise: ‘Forecasting the New York Stock Exchange’ pioneered Fourier mathematics to decompose and model market cycles from planetary postions using two specific methods. Diagram A is from the same pamphlet. W.D Gann took on and refined this work. Again for now if you research the date of the last square and where we are in the progression of the cycle. The first decade is normally seen as expansionary but see below.

W.D. Gann 10 Year Cycle

Whilst the 10 year cycle is a well know time period used by W.D.Gann it is clearly related to the cycle above and influenced by the work of Professor Weston. See diagram B below from the Treatise just mentioned and consider where we are as we enter the 6th year.

The Sexagenary (60 Year) Cycle

The sexagenary cycle, a foundational 60-year calendrical system in Chinese tradition, weaves together the ten heavenly stems and twelve earthly branches to assign unique elemental and zodiacal attributes to each year, influencing astrology, cosmology, and cultural events. The Yi Si year embodying the Yin Wood stem (Yi) paired with the Snake branch (Si) manifests as the Wood Snake, a potent combination of serpentine wisdom, intuition, and strategic grace infused with Wood’s nurturing growth and resilience. This cycle repeats every six decades, so the Wood Snake last slithered through 1965 (from February 2, 1965, to January 20, 1966), a tumultuous era marked by the Vietnam War’s escalation, the U.S. civil rights movement’s fervor, and the launch of Gemini 3, symbolizing transformative shifts that echoed the sign’s enigmatic depth. Today in 2025, falls squarely within the current Wood Snake year (January 29, 2025, to February 16, 2026), ushering in a period of subtle innovation and renewal amid global uncertainties, where the Wood element fosters adaptability and the Snake encourages calculated risks, much like the cycle’s enduring rhythm of renewal and introspection.

Jupite- Uranus 14-Year Cycle

The Jupiter Uranus Cycle takes nearly 14 years to complete and its alignments represent periods of growth but also severe disrution. As with Jupiter Saturn above the important events often occur at conjunctions, oppositions and squares and also semi squares. You might note a conjunction occurred in 1997 in the lead up to the dot com bubble and then in 2010 and 2011 at the start of the Arab Uprising whilst squares occured in 2007 and 2021. More recently the harmonics of the semi-square are reverberating in time and price as we reach $6666. The last conjunction occured in 2024 in Taurus. Of note the conjunctions return to the same sign in a pattern that takes about 84 years. The last time in Taurus was 1941. Growth, change, innovation and then drumbeats of war.

Uranus 84 Year Cycle and Cycles of War

Uranus’s 84-year orbit, completing one whole Zodiac Cycle, and travelling approximately 7 years through each sign, brings revolutionary upheavals in communication, intellect, and technology, with its ingress into Gemini occurring July 7, 2025, (after a brief Taurus retrograde) historically correlating with U.S. wars and societal resets and amplifying a “war cycle” tied to America’s natal Uranus in Gemini. Past transits include (1775-1783: Revolutionary War; 1861-1869: Civil War; 1941-1949: WWII) and underscore Gemini’s dual themes of division and innovation, often manifesting as conflicts over information, trade, and alliances. The period between 2025-2033, coinciding with the U.S. Uranus return, peaks in 2029, and just as we see the cycle develop, ominously the famous Socrates program of Martin Armstrong shows a panic cycle of potential war in 2026.

18.6 Year Lunar Nodal Cycle and Real Estate Cycle

Louise McWhirter suggested her theory in 1938 in “Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting” identifying the business curve with the passage of the North Node through the Zodiac. This can be seen visually below courtesy of Time Price Research. You can see where are currently as we prepare to move into Aquarius in 2026 and also should be aware that Uranus will be stationed in Gemini something identified as depressing the business curve. We could also look here at the closely related real estate cycle also reaching a high this year before turning down.

Eclipse Cycles and Saros Cycles

See previous article on the related dates and connection to Saros Cycles and see dates below.

Shorter Term Cycles

If you look closely at the cycles above then you will see that next year there should be a significant down phase in the market. This should occur between February and August.

My preference following the 1965 analogue based on the Sexagenary Cycle above is that the market should extend mostly in an up phase until February of next year before we see the sustained downtrend. However, I am not sure if this will occur a little earlier in January or later due to other important astrological signatures, eclipse cycles and of course Uranus not only in Gemini but making a square to the Node. This all makes timing next year difficult but direction less so.

October Astro Signatures and Algo:

In the short term we should expect a trough to occur between October 8-15 and then an up phase until November where we see the next maxima of Professor Weston and another turning point.

Below is the astro signature from the algo for October. This is the slower model I use. Below this we can see a strength model for the month.

Important Diary Events October:

The month includes the following:

-Venus at Perihelion (October 2 ) Financial Impact: Bullish for luxury, beauty, and service sectors.

-US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)(October 3)

-Full Moon in Aries (Harvest Supermoon October 7) Financial Impact: Boosts energy/consumer goods stocks Expect high volatility in speculative trades.

-FOMC Minutes (October 8)

-Venus Ingress into Libra.(October 13) Financial Impact: Bullish for art, fashion, luxury, and diplomacy. See retail sector.

-Pluto Stations Direct in Aquarius (October 14) Financial Impact: Positive for Tech, AI, crypto and innovation generally but traditional markets face volatility.

-CPI Data Released USA(October 15)

Neptune Rx re-enters Pisces (October 22) Financial Impact: Energy, real estate, and crypto may weaken but media and wellness gain. Debt heavy markets may see sell-offs.

Mercury Enters Sagittarius (October 29) and Mercury Greatest Eastern Elongation (October 29) Financial Impact: May cause short term market turns. In Sagittarius, Mercury emphasizes expansive, optimistic communication and global perspectives. This is bullish for tech, telecom, metal, and trade-related stocks and supportive for global commerce and trade negotiations generally.

Conclusion

Everything points to the markets reaching their zenith but just not yet. It is difficult to be precise with cycles as we have shown but we can use them as a guide, and if we quietly mix our metaphors, the hand we see waving at us from the shore may indeed still be waving and that it good, but we are reaching a time soon where that wave may be a cry for a help and we should act accordingly.

October 1, 2025

Disclaimer: Do your own research. The content provided is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as any form of advice. I am not a financial advisor and do not accept any loss or liability for any damage or loss you may incur. Take appropriate independent financial advice suitable for your own circumstances before making any investment decision. Be a responsible person and take responsibility for your life and your decisions. AI has assisted in research and image generation.