Forecasting Markets In November: Blowing Bubbles In Bitcoin, Gold And Stocks As Bigmouth Strikes Again
$DJI, GC=F (COMEX), BTC/USD, $XLK, $AMZN
The month often attributed to the homewrecker has almost passed. In November we come into a seasonally strong period generally assisted by the ending of the blackout period. Gold is correcting and many are waiting to see Bitcoin make another life-changing run until the end of the year. And yet, the still small voice whispers to me, and I am not sure whether to listen.
I am not mad. The year to date has been average in my discretionary accounts. I have been too cautious-a mistake, for sure. And yet, I cannot help reminding myself of when I first joined the Investment Bank. Investment Banks by then were filled with some of the brightest often with multiple degrees and doctorates and yet as one crisis led to another, leading to the Great Recession, I could not understand why these issues could not be better predicted.
It was only much later after leaving the Industry that I started to study cycles, more esoteric work and later still astronomy and astrology. I do not claim these are the answer, or to be an expert, but they offer more insight than many other technical and fundamental tools. And that is the rub, because despite all those indicators some of the cycles and astronomy/astrology in particular, look challenging into 2026. Whether it will be from February or April has been my working assumption, but the further cycles extend, often, time runs out, leading to quite rapid phases down.
November Astro Signatures and Strength Algo:
In the short term we should expect a peak to occur between November 7-11 and then a down phase possibly until the first week of December.
Below is the astro signature from the algo for the month of November. This is the slower model I use and is quite positive. It does not suggest a significant decline. The model has been quite accurate. Below this we can see a strength model for the month. $ AAPL continues to look strong. Gold appears to consolidate but Bitcoin does not show the run up many expect.
Charts and Stuff in November
Dow Jones Industrial Weekly Chart
I use the Dow Jones due to the amount of historical data available as mentioned previously. Below I have added in the 1965 historical analogue. The reasons have been explained previously many times so feel free to check earlier articles before they are removed. I have included the classic 40 and 20 week Hurst Cycle as applied from the April Lows with slight adjustment and added in the periodogram of the slightly compressed 40 week cycle using all available data. These are just a guide. The resultant chart is self- explanatory. We may see cycles extend out until February and possibly even April but I suspect given the current price action the peak will occur in late January.
Gold Weekly and Daily Chart
The 8 year Gold Cycle is one of the most recognised cycles in the market. In fact, Gold moves in geometric and fractal like cyclical patterns of 8 years. If you look back over time you will note cycles of 8, 16, 32 and 64 years and in longer term charts you can see clear lows with mostly minor offsets to the cycle in 1966, 1974, 1982, 1990, 1998/00, 2007/8, 2015 and 2022.
However, when you run the periodogram the cycle is seen to be slightly less than 8 years. It is approximately 7.80 years. The last 16 year cycle started from 2015 and continues until at least 2031/2. The last 7/8 year cycle started from 2022. Longer term Gold cycles will therefore be bullish for some years to come and this is supportive of the commodity boom Martin Armstrong and others have highlighted until at least the early to mid 2030s.
Gold Daily Chart
In the very near term, Gold has begun a small corrective phase which may continue until the end of November after a small rise in the first week of the month. I have simply added in the 40/20 week and 68 day cycle lengths. As can be seen we are peaking in the 20 week cycle and starting to decline in the 40 week cycle.
Gold Seasonals, Inflation and Geocosmics
Generally, November and December are good months for Gold seasonally and you might expect to see a high made as Mars enters into Sagittarius in the first week of November from a geocosmic perspective. Volatility is then likely to increase with Mercury in retrograde in November see below. Towards the end of the month Saturn should bring some stability. Taken all together and if inflation falls we should peak in Gold and have some cosolidation in November. Expecting price between $3,830 and $4,200.
Bitcoin Weekly and Daily Chart
Turning to Bitcoin, below you will see the 40 week cycle is slightly compressed running at about 245 days. It often drifts towards the 225 day Venus Cycle. I have added in a harmonic in pink to reflect current cycles and they indicate a down phase in the near term.
Below is the projected composite and this indeed fits in with analysis above.
Bitcoin Daily Chart, Seasonals, Gold and Geocosmics
Despite the above, seasonal factors are positive for Bitcoin in November even with obvious outliers overweighting the average. However, the bullishness should not mask the fact that cycle highs were made in November and December in 2013, 2017, 2021 and cycle lows in 2018 and 2022, not statistically of significance perhaps, but noteworthy nonethleless and more so here if the analogue is 2022. Below we can see this 2022 analogue in the blue projection line referenced from late January 2022.
I have also added in Bitcoin and Gold in red. The expectation is that as Gold declines there is reallocation into Bitcoin. That is the theory and in the near term the cycle does goes up but not until closer to December when it is battling the more active dominant cycles above. As a result, I am not sure if Bitcoin will reach $139,000 below in November and expect the range to be between $110,000 and $120,000. It may try to go higher but may still fail as Mars conjunct Mercury, causing some geocosmic pressure in the month.
Important Diary Events November:
The month includes some interesting astro signatures and events particularly at the beginning of the month. It is a month characterised by restlessness and the probing curiosity of Scorpio. Agreements may be revisited and reassessed and with Mercury retrograde and Mars combust, we might expect volatility, exhaustion and corrections with recovery only after December 1st, when Mars exits combust and Mercury stations direct.
Venus Passes Natal NYSE Heliocentric Declination between 4-9 (5*6*) November
Heliocentric models favour longer term cycles by better aligning with planetary dynamics more so than the shorter term emotional geocentric cycles. Watch for turning points and pivots to occur.
Mars (0°08 Sagittarius) opposes Uranus Rx (0°08 Gemini) on November 4
This is a tense opposition between the action and oriented Mars in Sagittarius and the innovative Uranus in Gemini and may cause sudden shifts and innovation. Financial impact: Expect abrupt market fluctuations, including tech sector disruptions and trade tensions, heightening recession risks but opening doors for quick gains in cryptocurrencies.
Full Moon in Taurus on November 5
The lunation in Taurus illuminates financial stability with the earthiness of the sign. Financial impact: It fosters economic clarity amid global uncertainty, potentially stabilizing stock markets and encouraging prudent investments in commodities like agriculture though volatility in currency exchanges may persist due to ongoing Uranus in Taurus influences
Uranus Rx back into Taurus on November 7
Uranus returns to earthy Taurus, intensifying themes of economic upheaval and innovation in values. Financial impact: This caps a volatile period with potential downturns in property and crypto markets, driving safe-haven investments like gold to counter global debt pressures and trade wars through year end.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Report (November 7, 8:30 AM ET)
Mercury Rx in Sagittarius and Scorpio November 9-29
Mercury stations retrograde, shifting into Scorpio on November 18, prompting a review of plans and past decisions. Financial impact: Delays in contracts and banking transactions could slow economic growth, exacerbating volatility in shares and currencies, with advice to avoid major deals until December.
Moon passes Natal NYSE Ascendant November 9
Watch for short term turning points.
Mercury Conjunct Mars November 12
A time for fast moves and high volatility be on the lookout for crypto moves.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Release (November 13, 8:30 AM ET*)
Mars Combust 15 November
Rallies may falter as Mars loses its strenth and power.
Mercury Cazimi in Scorpio on November 20
Mercury conjuncts the Sun in Scorpio during its retrograde, offering a moment of profound insight and renewal in communications. Financial impact: A brief window for strategic financial realignments, that could boost joint economic resources and ease earlier retrograde disruptions.
Conclusion
$XLK, $AMZN
Cycles have extended out. Will we pull back in any meaningful way or simply continue to drift higher into the end of the year. My fear is that if we do not come in sooner we will do so later with more force but to date we do not have any reversal trigger and hope is not a winning strategy. As the blackout period ends I am steering towards quality and technology in particular (XLK) with growth over defensive sectors. The historical analogue is clear. Gold is less so and I expect more consolidation. I want Bitcoin to explode but the cycles are simply not great and give me pause. We may see another run higher but the down phase may be quite significant into next year a better time to place bets perhaps. Good Luck.
10/29/2025
Disclaimer: Do your own research. The content provided is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as any form of advice. I am not a financial advisor and do not accept any loss or liability for any damage or loss you may incur. Take appropriate independent financial advice suitable for your own circumstances before making any investment decision. Be a responsible person and take responsibility for your life and your decisions.